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Y. PROFESSOR WARNED OF TEMBLOR IN 1997

Brigham Young University geology professor Ron Harris has had trouble sleeping since the earthquake he predicted seven years ago killed an estimated 150,000 people along the rim of the Indian Ocean on Dec. 26.
Ref. https://deseretnews.com/dn/view/1%2C1249%2C...02319%2C00.html

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There are a number of earthquake prediction teams around the country - probably around the world -- and they are largely ignored. I regularly visit a website that discusses research involving ultra-low-frequency soundwaves as precursors to earthquakes. (Mostly in Southern California, so I have a vested interest!) I think the lab there is funded by research grants. But does anyone really listen to them? I'm not sure. I know I have additional reasons to prepare, just by living in a fault zone that has had no significant activity for a hundred years. We're due, and soon.

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I think the problem is with accuracy. If they could say tomorrow we will have a significant earthquake in downtown LA, people would probably listen. To say, we are seeing signs of an earthquake some place in a large region and we don't know when, what can you do really? Yes, you can store water, etc., but you can't stop living your life. You can't evacuate the area...

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I agree Tena, what do you do to prepare? Even if you have your 72 hour kits or backpacks you might not be able to get to them no matter where you put them. Should I walk around with it on whenever I leave the house? It was predicted early last year that we were supposed to have an earthquake around September. This was from the same guy that predicted the 1989 Bay Area quake. I definitely felt anxious. But now it's January 2005 and we haven't had one. I feel just like you do Farseer. I don't know what to think. I have thought so many times about the people in southern Asia, and I feel that that could easily be us. Even with the strong testimony that I have and faith in God, it is still hard to understand and accept.

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They could have at least decided to create some sort of early warning system, based on his prediction. Even if they had only known 1 hour in advance, it would have been enough to warn the people and urge them to get to a safe location.

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My understanding of tsunami warnings is that the majority of them fizzle out to very small waves or just a little extra surf. I believe it quite likely that the people would become complacent and just ignore the warnings. In fact, this is exactly what happened in Alaska in the 1960's. They had a warning system in place because of an earlier deadly tsunami. Well there had been so many false warnings that when the real thing came, many people actually went down to the beach to watch the waves come in after hearing the tsunami warning. 122 people died. Nothing like the scale of this tsunami, but the point is the same.

Now, I am not suggesting we don't try something, but realistically, unless we can predict a problem with some measure of accuracy, it will do little good.

Edited: tenaheff on 8th Jan, 2005 - 1:19pm

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They're working on it already:

From www.bernama.com/bernama/v3/news_lite.php?id=112932

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Thanks for the info and Farseer. Great article. Tena, you also make some good points.

Is there really such a thing as a safe place in the event of an earthquake? I guess there are some safer places to go than others, but unless you travel a long distance away, I don't think any place is safe.