To be honest, his sharp remarks lend me to think he is just posturing. Despersate to try and jostle for position because he knows he is losing the war of words. I am not sure he would use nuclear weapons. China would never allow it.
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QUOTE (arvhic @ 17-Oct 06, 3:27 PM) |
China would never allow it. |
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N. Korea has been fairly smart at going to various countries to gain their technology and support (not just China). By doing this, they have really don't have a complete allegiance to any one country. If you think they are a "lap-dog", read this:
https://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/18/D8KR5TG00.html
There is a key note: N. Korea "informs" China of 3 additoinal nuke tests. Doesn't really sound like they are asking for any permission does it?
Kim Jong Il has seen what benefits that India and Pakistan have received since going nuclear and he wants some of that support too. IMO, I think he really wants to extract it from the US, so he can "stick-it" to the superpower and G. Bush. He has threatened with nukes for years and gotten food, money and some technology for a promiss that he would not develop a weapon. He took the money, food and technology and developed the weapon anyway. N. Korea had to explode the weapon to get more money, food and technology for the future because the goverments that were giving him all this stuff stopped when he started his nuclear program again. The only way to get the money and food rolling in again was to set a nuke off and extort the world.
If it were the US versus N. Korea, N. Korea would lose and it would be much easier to replace him than Saddam because there aren't 3 different ethinic groups fighting for control. However, Kim Jong Il is not stupid and he doesn't want to bring it to that level. He just wants his riches - which the world will provide him after this display of (as much as we don't want to think of it) power.
Edited: Vincenzo on 19th Oct, 2006 - 2:19am
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PYONGYANG WILL BE HELD 'TO ACCOUNT' ON NUCLEAR AGGRESSION: BUSH
U.S. President George W. Bush said Wednesday that his country would stop North Korea from transferring nuclear weapons and technology, warning Pyongyang it would then face "a grave consequence."
Ref. https://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/200...rice-visit.html
I think you make a valid point Vincenzo. However I would stray from using the word smart and the Korean leader in one sentence. I don't believe he is smart at all. I think he is a cold blooded criminal who should be made to starve to death.
Furthermore, I don't think NK hold sway in this situation. They are desperately trying to get whatever they can out of the world, but not too many people are interested. Yes, it is posturing for political gain, but NK is one of the poorest countries in the world and is desperate to use their "nuclear" threat to stay relevant and survive. China could destroy the NK Government tomorrow if it pleased.
In fact the Us could possibly destroy NK with the push of a button. Yes, Kim Jong Ill is using the nuclear threat for political gain. No, he is not in a position to tell others what they should do for him.
Edited: arvhic on 19th Oct, 2006 - 7:40pm
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China "could" just invade N.Korea and take over the country that would add a few million more numbers to the poor of China. Of course, this would detract from the massive demand of funds that are being funneled for the "Grand Opening" that is called the Olympics. China really has wanted N. Korea to back off the nuke program, but they cannot simply tell N.Korea to do it and have them obey. Kim Jong Il does not report to Beijing and that does irritate China particularly because this was their opportunity to look like a world superpower that it wants to be. China has tried to get N. Korea backdown for a while and has even started their own sanctions against the non-compliant country. This is just like Taiwan not reporting to Beijing. As a mater of fact, no Mainland Chinese are allowed into Taiwan (pretty strange for a state that is supposed to be part of China) and they can do nothing about that as of yet. China would definitely prefer for N. Korea to stay nuke-free and depend on them for protection. Additionally, they would LOVE to broker the deal that brings the conflict to an end, as that would be a huge feather in China's cap (might even bring some UN benefits later). Read the article below and ask if it sounds like Kim is acting like a good little lap-dog:
https://www.guardian.co.uk/korea/article/0,,1861296,00.html
You could say he is going there because Beijing commanded a visit. OR You could say that Kim Jong Il is going their to get his grain and food back and make a deal with China. Why is it I picture increased exports of food to N. Korea from China and China taking the lead on a successful denuclearization treaty that has large food, oil and potentially technology strings attached to it? Of course, don't really expect that he is going to get rid of anything. Why would he follow through on a agreement at that point when he has never done it in the past?
Kim Jong Il has done this time and time again. Each time he gets more money, food and technology. However, each time, he has had to raise the stakes to extort the things he wants. His economy is pretty simple: build military and not infastructure, while letting the rest of the world feed his people. He will use internal and apparently drug money as well to fund his ambitions...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_North_Korea
He wants his due from the US, Japan, S. Korea and even Russia and China. Kim Jong Il wants to be a "player" and with his new toys - he probably will be.
This probably sounds like I want a pre-emptive strike on him. If we were going to to it, it is WAY too late now. However, I am not in favor of it and we are just going to have to pay the guy off and be as smart as we can to make sure there is actually something in return for the payment.
Smart, maybe, he is not smart. Clever may be a better choice of words.
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QUOTE |
Vincenzo said: Why is it I picture increased exports of food to N. Korea from China and China taking the lead on a successful denuclearization treaty that has large food, oil and potentially technology strings attached to it? Of course, don't really expect that he is going to get rid of anything. Why would he follow through on a agreement at that point when he has never done it in the past? |
QUOTE |
Kim 'sorry about nuclear test' North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed regret about his country's nuclear test to a Chinese delegation and said Pyongyang would return to nuclear talks if Washington backed off from its financial sanctions, a South Korean newspaper reported today. "If the US makes a concession to some degree, we will also make a concession to some degree, whether it be bilateral talks or six-party talks," Kim was quoted as telling a Chinese envoy, the mass-circulation Chosun Ilbo reported, citing a diplomatic source in China. Kim told the Chinese delegation that "he is sorry about the nuclear test," the newspaper reported. |
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RUSSIANS SCORN RICE'S STANCE ON IRAN SANCTIONS
Condoleezza Rice met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday to talk about North Korea's recent nuclear test.
Ref. https://www.cbc.ca/story/world/national/2006/10/21/rice.html