Through various means, I came across this article about the history of the current government in Iran. It is quite long, but very interesting. It also points out that the Iranian government is probably a lot shakier than most of us think.
Based on these things, I really don't think the US is going to have to do too much about Iran. If Iran keeps up the work on its nuclear weapons program, I am sure that Israel will take it apart for them. Other than that, the unrest of the general populace in Iran indicates that the government will fall rather soon. At least we can always hope....
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To the contrary, latest election results give the hard core conservative religious leaders a greater grip on the country. As for Israel going after Iran, I don't think so, Israel has it's hands full right now with the Palestinian issues and trouble is starting to heat-up again with Lebanon.
I think, one of the reason for the US invasion of Iraq was to secure stronger US military presence in the middle east and to provide brute force support to Israel if required. I'm sure Bush told Sharon not to worry about Iran he (Bush) will take care of it.
The encouraging thing about Iran is that there seems to be a new found will to work things out via the diplomatic route and with international arrangements. Iran even outlawed torture, which I'm sure was aimed at the U.S. Far more damaging than a few bombs.
As for the US attacking Iran, well unless they could get away with nuking the place and or dropping 50,000 bombs, I doubt very much the (US) would be foolish enough to invade Iran considering the Iraq fiasco.
Finally, I think the US realises (I hope) how stupid the unilateral move on Iraq was therefore the US would want Israel to obtain international support before the US would agree. Since Israel's current government is probably the most hated in the world no way would the US go along but then we must remind ourselves who the president of the USA is...........???..... if I was an Iranian I would be building a bomb shelter :-->
Have you really read about the recent election in Iran? If you did, you obviously missed the part about the mullahs disqualifying all of the reform candidates, and only allowing their own candidates to be on the ballot. Because of this, less than 30% of the eligible voters even turned up, and many, possibly most, of them posted blank ballots. It seems that in order for students to continue at school, or any type of government worker to continue working, they had to have their ID stamped showing that they had voted.
Doesn't really sound like an overwhelming endorsement for the ruling body.
As for the nuclear power. Israel only has to bomb the plants, like they have done before. The US won't.
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Most of the countries that have them have had them for a long time. Before anyone thought to prevent it. Also, I think the US is more stable in terms of use than Iran would be. Pakistan is not, and has been a great concern recently that they may use them. I think the concern with Iran having them is that they would just decide to destroy Israel simply because it exists. It is one thing to use them in defense, but another entirely to say "We don't accept your right to exist as a country so we are going to eliminate you with our nuclear weapons."
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I agree Nighthawk, sure not the most democratic election around. The point is however, the religious leaders still maintain a firm grip on the country.
As for Israel launching a raid on Irans nuclear facilities, I would not bet on it. But I would say that if Israel feels threaten by one of it's neighbors it would not hesitate use nuclear weapons. I honestly think, it will be Israel to be the country to start a nuclear holocaust. During the 7 day war, reports out of Israel confirmed that they had readied their nuclear warheads.
Now the question to answer is, how do Arab states protect themselves against Israel??
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Now the question to answer is, how do Arab states protect themselves against Israel?? |
International Level: International Guru / Political Participation: 854 85.4%
You may be right, but this time having the U.S. in area adds to the sensitivity of it all. Any strike by Israel will be seen as one sponsored by the U.S. I'm not sure the U.S can effort to alienate all of the Arab/muslims world including Pakistan and Turkey to a point of no return.
Don't forget the US has close ties to the Saudis, Turkey and are getting fair co-operation from Pakistan. Without the co-oporation from these countries the Americans would not be able to effectively fight the war on terrorism (ie on their turf.)
There is no doubt, any U.S. supported attack on Iran by Israel would force Arab nations who are sympathetic to the U.S.cause to cease all american support. NO way does the U.S wants that to happen.
I for one, do not think the U.S. can take on the World nor do I believe that the majority of Americans would want U.S foreign policy to further isolate the U.S.