If you notice Oil has been above $70 for awhile now and I have the feeling it is inching towards $90 a barrel. Be on the look out for high food prices again, I've already seen it modified slightly.
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Dramatic spike in gas prices forecast: Demand for oil keeps increasing:
The former head of Shell Oil has warned that gas prices could hit $5 a gallon by 2012 because of fast-growing demand in emerging countries such as China and India, where more and more people are buying cars, combined with restraints on drilling in the U.S. In the wake of last year's disastrous Gulf oil spill. Ref. Source 9
The new bench price for oil by the cartel is about $100 per barrel. The biggest issue with oil is that it is an investment vehicle. It was the reason for the bubble last time and at the end several investors lost money (primarily in funds that allowed for the speculation). These are people that create ficticious demand. Yes, China is growing, but there is enough oil for now. People are betting on shortages and increased prices...and are increasing the price because of it.
Source 5
However, OPEC is ok with prices hitting $100 per barrel (specially since there is not direct reason for them as to why it has nearly doubled in the last couple years). They do realize that if it goes a lot higher that it could be detrimental to the world economy. The bad part is that the speculation from investors actually are in more control of the price than OPEC. Hopefully, we will not have another speculation bubble (even OPEC doesnt want this again).
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I honestly hope it never hits $100 and comes right back down to where it should be $50-$60 because Food Prices are already so high as it is and we do not need a further increase and excuse by merchandisers to increase it even more.
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It wouldn't be bad if the people investing in oil had to actually use it. The problem is that they are buying contracts (creating false demand of future production) on oil production and have absolutely no intention of ever using the oil. Typically, they expect the price to go up higher than what they invested and then dump the oil back on the market. The major reason for the last big oil spike wasnt China's increased demand...it was speculators. The more speculation. The more false demand created (because they need enough oil to cover the contracts sold).
I was hoping that with the last bubble (many investment funds lost a lot of money for retirees) that there would be some modifications to the amount of speculation or quantity of contracts offered for speculation, but as I have seen there has been nothing done. This is why the oil companies will be reporting monsterous earnings. It has nothing to do with how much it cost them to process the oil.
The only good thing is that oil typically goes up in the winter and then drops in price in spring time, but that is really a easing of the demand.
If it repeats like it did last time, the biggest lever for oil/gas prices will be the adjustment to the amount of tax your particular government puts on it. Hopefully, the green movement realized that grain alcohol, while is a viable alternative, has some really negative consequences for the rest of the world - less grain produced for human consumption.
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